What’s happening in Erie?
Description of the Data:
Local climate data displayed in the tables below are derived from either NOAA U.S. Climate Division PA-10 data, or from the GHCN Erie, PA station data. Climate division data is used to identify seasonal and annual trends at the multi-county scale, while station data represents more local climate conditions.
Six dynamically downscaled global climate models are used to assess future changes. Projections are reported as a change from the historical reference period of 1980-1999 and all use Climate Division PA-10 as a geographical boundary. Changes are reported as a range from the lowest model projection to the highest model projection rather than using an average of the six models. All projections assume a high emissions scenario (RCP 8.5).
Table 1. below shows historical averages, historical changes, and projected changes into mid-and-late century for precipitation totals and extreme precipitation events in Northeast Pennsylvania. With the historical time period of 1951-2019 as a reference, annual precipitation in Erie has increased by 23.5%.
Table 2 shows historical average, historical change, and mid-to-late Century projections for temperatures and hot and cold days in Northwestern Pennsylvania. With the historical time period of 1951-2019 as a reference, annual temperatures in Erie have risen 2.9 degrees F.
Average temperatures are expected to increase by 6.4-9.6 degrees by the end of the century.
Heat waves could occur up to three times per year by the end of the century.
Precipitation is expected to change seasonally, with more precipitation in the winter and more drought in the summer. When precipitation does occur in the summer, it’s expected to be in the form of storm events that could cause heavy flooding.
Extreme weather events are expected to increase.
Snow cover in Pennsylvania is expected to shrink; although Erie could experience more lake-effect snow if the Lake doesn’t freeze over